Kahneman's Theory Of Rational Decision Making

JUDGEMENT UNDER UNCERTAINTY

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION

Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman began work on a series of papers examining "heuristic and biases" used in judgment under uncertainty. They explained that judgment under uncertainty often relies on a limited number of simplifying heuristics rather than extensive algorithmic processing. This idea spread beyond academic psychology, into law, medicine, and political science and this research questioned the descriptive adequacy of idealized models of judgment. They gave insights to cognitive processes that explained human error without invoking motivated irrationality. One strategy that people apply is they make a judgment about the frequency of an event based on how many similar instances are

An availability heuristic is a mental shortcut that is the immediate things that come to a given person 's mind when evaluating a specific topic, concept, method or decision. There are situations in which people assess the frequency of class or the probability of an event by the ease with which instances or occurrences could be brought to mind. For example, one may evaluate the probability that a given business venture will fail by imagining various difficulties which it could encounter. This judgmental heuristic is called availability. In general, availability is a useful clue for assessing frequency or probability, because instances of large classes are recalled better and faster than instances of less frequent classes. However, availability is also affected by other factors besides frequency and probability. Consequently, the reliance on availability leads to predictable biases, some of which are illustrated

The participant will be asked to read the consent form which informs them about what to expect throughout the experiment, generally and is made to know that there are no known risks involved in participation. After signing the consent form, the participant will be given specific instructions regarding the task. The instructions to be given are: 'This is a simple experiment. You will be shown some words. You have to read those words carefully and answer the questions asked. ' The words ending with ‘ing’ as well as words having ‘n’ at second last position are presented. Both types of words are same in number and also there are some distracter words in it. Once the participant finishes reading the words he will be given a distracter task of writing even numbers from 1to 20 for unlearning of words. After that the participant will be asked to write down all the words with ‘ing’ ending and words with ‘n’ at second last position which he had seen in the experiment within 60 seconds. The after the experiment is done the participant will be give debriefing that is the information about what the experiment, the purpose and the origin of the theory of the