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Earthquakes During The 1960s And 1970s: A Case Study

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To better prepare for earthquake hazards, scientists researched predicting earthquakes during the 1960s and 1970s. If timing and location were known, then a warning could be issued to evacuate the affected area. Predictors included changes in background radon gas emissions and animal behavior (Kerr, 2011). Those efforts showed inconclusive results and scientists turned to forecasting through probability statistics based on the Parkfield earthquake in 2004 (Kerr, 2011). For seismic events, forecasting assumes two things: 1) that stress and strain on a fault are constant; 2) what has occurred in the past will happen again. Looking at recurrence events in the documented past allows seismologists to calculate recurrence intervals of earthquakes. …show more content…

In 2012, Caltech and UC Berkeley along with USGS developed and earthquake early warning system called ShakeAlert for California and the West Coast of the United States. The goal is to warn the public of a large earthquake, usually a magnitude 3.0 and above, through a public alert system.
Seismic forecasting is not like weather forecasting where satellites and radar can “see” in advance of a storm. Seismologist are unable to “see” into the earth and observe pressure or strain accumulating in the crust. What they can do is make use of seismometers that passively record ground motion in the form of seismic waves. Improving software and telemetry from a network, seismologists on the West Coast of the United States are testing earthquake early warning. Earthquake early warning systems are the best tool that seismologists have to forewarn the public when an earthquake will arrive, but only after the fault has slipped. When a fault slips, two types of waves are generated, the primary wave and the secondary wave. The system detects the arrival of the p-wave first that carries less energy. It is the secondary wave that carries more energy and the “strong shaking” that causes the most damage. Depending on where the seismometers and earthquakes are located, an alert can give at least several seconds warning prior to the arrival of the s-wave. A forewarning of even a few seconds could give people time to drop, cover and hold on (PNSN

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