Negative Predictive Analysis Colombia

Colombia is host to Latin America’s longest war between the country’s sovereign government and the rebel organization, Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC). Over the last 3 years, the government and the rebel group have been conferring in an effort to establish a peace agreement.

Second Order of Effects. In reference to the peace efforts, the second order of effect is: Colombia and FARC are diligently acting in the interests of a potential resolution and peace treaty between the two organizations. Evidence of this effort suggests peace negotiations have been evolving for the past 3 years, and as of 1 December 2015, the rebel group and the Colombian government have reached a tentative agreement to end the 52-year long conflict. The

Positive predictive analysis is the U.S. and Colombia will base future intelligence value on the recent outcomes of those countries and the effort in Colombia will consider this second order of effect and include objectives to combat this outcome. Negative predictive analysis is that this previous example of drug eradication an interdiction in Peru and Bolivia will not be utilized in the operations analysis and though success will be found in eradicating and interdicting drugs in Colombia, the production will maintain the capability to grow again in Peru, Bolivia or additional South American countries. If drug production is not controlled, the political terror organizations will still profit from the drug trade, violence will still ensue, and civilians will still continue to be displaced. Conclusive analysis suggests in the next 1-5 years, the United States and Colombia will work together to eradicate and interdict the drug trade at its source in Colombia. In the 5-10 years, the relationship will continue to flourish, Colombia will continue to navigate peace with FARC and other organizations that threaten national security, and the drug trade and its second third order of effects will be minimized in Colombia and surrounding

Current events from approximately the last three years, threats and their immediate impact on the country as well as second, third order of effects, predictive analysis on short and long term assessments concerning the significance of the country, and future intelligence value to the U.S. were discussed. References

Beittel, J. S., & Library of Congress. (2012). Colombia: Background, U.S. relations, and Congressional interest. Washington, D.C.: Congressional Research Service. http://intellibrary.libguides.com/ld.php?content_id=6503962

Colombia Peace. (n.d.). Retrieved January 15, 2016, from http://colombiapeace.org/

Colombia: Government Won’t Extradite Rebel to U.S. (2015). Retrieved January 16, 2016, from http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/02/world/americas/colombia-government-wont-extradite-rebel-to-us.html?ref=topics

SOUTHCOM: Columbia. (n.d.). Retrieved January 13, 2016, from