The Potential Effects of a Trump Presidency For aviation, free trade and globalization has been the cornerstone for consummation. On the micro-level, the Airline Deregulation Act of 1978 brought on a diverse and inclusive era of natural competition furnishing exponential growth and sustainability, highlighted by eras of economic booms and busts, tussling through liquidations, volatile fuel prices, financial bailouts, mergers, and acquisitions. The airline industry revolutionized and fine-tuned its craft by eradicating competition, slashing operational costs, phasing out unlucrative routes, and retiring their older, less fuel-efficient fleet. The US government through Open Skies agreements, bilateral and multilateral agreements throughout all …show more content…
As a result, airlines have enjoyed record profit numbers, undeterred by brief outliers of economic recession such as the dot-com bust, 9/11 attacks, and the great recession of 2008, the general trend line of economic prosperity continues to rise, evident by the financial feat for the fifth straight year. The recent election of President Donald Trump marks a period of uncertainty, posing a looming challenge for the future of air travel. For the future, Airbus’s forecast predicts, “air traffic will grow at 4.5 percent annually, requiring some 33,000-new passenger and dedicated freighter aircraft at a value of US$ 5.2 trillion over the next 20 years.” With Trump’s protectionist agenda in sight, this could signify a stagnation of growth and less opportunities for innovation and expansion. The effects would ripple a shock through commercial and manufacturing industries. Depending on Trump’s position on free trade, aviation could be hit in numerous areas, with Trump’s position of increasing domestic protectionism and dismantling any chances of forming the Trans-Pacific Partnership and the Transatlantic Trade and Investment …show more content…
Introducing strict visa requirements for tourism primarily between Mexico and the US can significantly upset demand, i.e. Venezuela, essentially cementing “trade barriers” and making the travelling process complex and perpetual thus, infringing tourism and commerce. Trump’s policies could mean thousands of jobs and billions of dollars in revenue lost, specifically, “Trump could cost the US airline industry $5 billion in revenue.” Furthermore, another key issue is the continual battle of US legacy carriers (Delta, American, and United) with Gulf carriers. Domestic carriers are planning to lobby Trump for protection against “dumping” from Middle East carriers, who according to the big three are unfairly subsidized by their government hacking away market share; in 2015 the three U.S. airlines said competition from the gulf carriers had cut their passenger load to the Middle East and Asia by more than 20 percent. Annulling our Open Skies Agreement with subsidized Middle East carriers, Qatar, Emirates, and Etihad, whose fleet is composed of a large amount of Boeing aircraft, to protect domestic airliners can scare away our main consumers to the competitor, Airbus and likewise the United Arab Emirates and Qatar would retaliate against US