Weekly Weather Forecast: Highs, Lows, and Analysis Insights
School
University of Missouri, Columbia**We aren't endorsed by this school
Course
ATM_SC 1050
Subject
Geography
Date
Dec 10, 2024
Pages
6
Uploaded by HighnessFlyMaster999
Monday ForecastMonday High: 67 °FTuesday Low: 41°FRainy with high humidity and lots of cloud coverage. Monday Forecast Analysis:Why did you forecast the way that you did? What models did you use and why? (3-4 sentences)I forecasted today’s high temperature as 67°F and tomorrow morning’s low as 41°F based on numerical weather prediction (NWP) data from NAM and GFS models. Both models consistently indicate temperatures around 67 °F for today (NAM shows 68°F, GFS shows 66°F) and around 41°F for tomorrow’s early low (NAM 42°F, GFS 40°F), which helped me find my prediction because I took a steady average for the high today and early morning low for tomorrow and went for the middle number as a bit of give room. I also noted high humidity, a strong change of rain, and significant cloud coverage, as both models show overcast conditions (CLD = OV) and high precipitation probabilities, especially in the GFS model (P06 = 94%). These details suggest rain and cloud cover, supporting a damp, humid day.
Tuesday ForecastTuesday High: 64°FWednesday Morning Low: 31°FMostly clear skies with wind coming from the southwest and no precipitation. Tuesday Forecast Analysis:Why did you forecast the way that you did? What models did you use and why? (3-4 sentences)I forecasted today’s high temperature to reach 64°F and tomorrow morning’s low at 31°F based on data from the NAM and GFS models. Both models showed consistent highs for today (NAM at 63°F, GFS at 62°F) and morning lows for tomorrow (NAM at 31°F, GFS at 32°F), leading me to average these figures for a solid prediction. The models indicate mostly clear skies today (CLD = CL), with minimal precipitation chances (P06 up to 4%), inferring dry conditions. Winds will increase throughout the day, contributing to a cool and breezy evening.
Wednesday ForecastWednesday High: 48°FThursday Morning Low: 30°FChilly and breezy with clear skies.Wednesday Forecast Analysis:Why did you forecast the way that you did? What models did you use and why? (3-4 sentences)Today’s high temperature is forecasted to reach 48°F, while tomorrow morning’s low is expected to be 30°F. This forecast is based on the analysis of the NAM and GFS models, which both show consistent highs around 47-50°F and lows near 30-32°F. Clear skies dominate the forecast (CLD = CL), with minimal precipitation chances today and overnight (P06 < 2%). Winds will remain moderate to strong today, decreasing slightly by tomorrow morning, reinforcing the cool and dry conditions for the next 24 hours.
Thursday ForecastThursday High: 44°FFriday Morning Low: 30°FClear skies with no rain and a bit of breeze. Thursday Forecast Analysis:Why did you forecast the way that you did? What models did you use and why? (3-4 sentences)I forecasted today’s high temperature to reach 44°F, while tomorrow morning’s low I expect to drop to 30°F. Both the NAM and GFS agree that consistent highs will be in the mid-40s and lows near the upper 20s to low 30s. There will be clear skies throughout the day (CLD = CL) with no chance of precipitation (p06 = 0%). Winds will remain breezy from the northwest (WDR ~ 30°), with speeds from 10-19 mph, gradually tapering off by the evening. Overall, Thursday will feature cool, crisp, and sunny conditions.
Friday ForecastFriday High: 44°FSaturday Morning Low: 34°FChilly and breezy day with overcast skies for most of the day until later in the afternoon when scattered clouds will start. With no chance of precipitation. Friday Forecast Analysis:Why did you forecast the way that you did? What models did you use and why? (3-4 sentences)I forecasted today’s high temperature to reach 44°F and tomorrow morning’s low at 34°F based on the data from the NAM and GFS MOS models. Both models showed consistent highs for today and lows for tomorrow morning, so I picked the middle number between the two to give myself some room for both circumstances. The models also indicated overcast skies transition to scattered clouds overnight (CLD = OV to SC), with minimal to no changes of precipitation (p06 = 0%), showing dry condition. Winds are expected to remain light and northernly, reinforcing a chilly but calm night (NAM and GFS 30° and 8 mph).
MY EXPERIENCE AS A WEATHER FORECASTERMy experience of forecasting the weather provided me with insight into meteorological data interpretation and practical forecasting methods. One of the most important skills I developed was the ability to analyze and compare numerical model guidance, such as the NAM and GFS MOS, to make informed predictions. These models were essential in helping me determine temperature trends, precipitation chances, wind direction, and cloud coverage What I did well in my forecasts was maintaining consistency between model outputs and my interpretations. For instance, I accurately predicted highs and lows by aligning closely with model guidance, which often showed only minor differences. Additionally, I effectively used cloud coverage (CLD) and precipitation probability (P06) indicators to determine clear skies and dry conditions. These components built a solid foundation for my prediction. However, there were also challenges. Occasionally, subtle variations between the models required me to make subjective decisions, which sometimes led to differences in my forecast versus what the actual weather was like. The wind direction and speed were very tricky since slight differences in angles and speeds can affect conditions, such as perceived temperatures. This showed me the importance of verifying data from multiple time intervals to ensure consistency, so I would check first at seven am and then again at eight am. Overall, this experience taught me that forecasting is not only a science but a huge art of interpretation. It requires a balance between model reliance and critical thinking to handle uncertainties in the data. The opportunity to forecast the weather has helped me to enjoy the class more and better understand what is being taught instead of just listening and not applying the knowledge learned.