Write An Essay On Overprecision

Overprecision is the act of thinking your judgments and decisions are accurate without verification that our decisions are correct. This causes one to be overconfident. Most of us are overconfident than we should about our accuracy of knowledge and our beliefs. One’s confidence interval can be expressed by the bull’s-eye that people draw on a target. The smaller the bullseye is drawn, the more confident they are about their desired outcome. If the bull’s-eye shrinks at the same rate as their accuracy increases, they will not hit their target any more often. As it is more common for us to choose action that rely on the uncertainty of our accuracy, and what the consequences are of falling short of our goal. For example, the decision

People want relief from stress even if this ends up changing their beliefs. Looking for more than one estimate of the same quantity, especially in a group; produces better final judgements then an individual first estimate. Even though we prefer to hear perspectives similar to our own, we are better off hearing different perspectives to make more informative decisions. Confidence earns trust and credibility, but when one is found to be wrong their credibility is now questioned. Assessing the overconfidence of people around us is often overlooked causing overprecision. Also,the cognitive process of the mind is better at searching memory for evidence that agrees with our beliefs rather than searching for evidence to disprove our belief. Cognitive process occurs unconsciously. Believing that we are right all the time instead of thinking about why you might be wrong causes

Self enhancement is a product of overestimation, in which people view themselves positively not accurately. People tend to overestimate their own performances, abilities, and talents. This bias is known as self enhancement. People also think they have more control over circumstances than they actually do. Picking one’s lottery ticket numbers can lead one to believe they have control over uncontrollable events, and superstitious beliefs are a false sense of control. Not taking control of things you actually can; like getting screened for cancer, is controllable. The planning fallacy is when we overestimate how much time it will take to complete a project or task. We are better allowing more time for the task rather than not meeting a deadline. Optimistic bias affects one’s judgment because the person believes they are at a lesser risk to a negative event than