(U) Introduction
(U) Terrorism is a global threat that the United States and many countries around the world strive to contain and defeat. Since terrorists target the essence of Western values and the democratic system, the United States remains a desirable target of terrorism. In a 2002 survey, Freedom House found that 75 percent of the world 's countries were currently "free", but in the Middle East, the prominent breeding ground for terrorism, only 28 percent of countries followed a democratic rule. Identifying the top national security priorities of the United States, such as strengthening our national defense, combatting the persistent threat of terrorism and building capacity to prevent conflict, the National Security Strategy conveys the significant threat that terrorism poses to the American way of life.
(U) In order to fight terrorism, the intelligence community needs to understand its causes and precursors. Additionally, identification of emerging trends and indications allows the intelligence community to forecast potential terrorist threats and provide early warning to policy makers in order to minimize potential attacks. One of the most prominent early warning indicators in determining the potential for terrorism growth derives itself from demographic trends. The “youth bulge” suggests a strong correlation between countries
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Hebert Moller wrote Youth as a Force in the Modern World (1968) and believed that an overpopulation of youth served as one of the crucial factors that shaped political and cultural developments in the twentieth century. Additionally, in Revolution and Rebellion in the Early Modern World (1991), Jack Goldstone cited extensive literature written regarding how the effects of youth overpopulations in nations, coupled with varying levels of discontent, served as a precursor for