Introduction The housing crash of 2005 is still very fresh for a lot of people. The housing crash cost people thousands and thousands of dollars, and left countless houses foreclosed and uninhabited. Not only did it lower the number of houses being sold it sky rocketed the number and size of loans. “The subprime mortgage crisis of 2007–10 stemmed from an earlier expansion of mortgage credit, including to borrowers who previously would have had difficulty getting mortgages, which both contributed to and was facilitated by rapidly rising home prices” (Duca, 2013). The major drop in the housing market also had a huge impact on the construction market, and many other industries. The crash also had a huge impact on the economy as a whole. The housing crash is still very evident with the large increase in delinquency loans and foreclosure rates. This paper will show how the sale on new one-family homes has increased over the years, and if it will continue. This will be done by using different types of forecasting models, and it will be us try to predict the future of the housing market. The Data Pattern Of New One-Family Houses Sold In The U.S. …show more content…
from January of 1975 until March 2011. Not only does Figure 1 show the data, but it also includes the time-series and non-seasonally adjusted data. This set of data is just enough to give a good amount of data as well as get cyclical fluctuations (CF) in this kind of market. “Time series analysis uses only the time series history of the variable being forecasted in order to develop a model for predicting the future values” (Gardiner, Johnson, and Montgomery, 1990). If we look at the figure below it is shown that there was a continuing upward trend, with some ups and downs, until 2005. The data after 2005 shows that the sale of new one-family houses in the united states took a clear decline as compared to the years