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Texas Clean Energy Coalition Case Analysis

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Exploring Natural Gas and Renewables in ERCOT, Part III:
The Role of Demand Response, Energy
Efficiency, and Combined Heat & Power
PREPARED FOR
The Texas Clean Energy Coalition
PREPARED BY
Ira Shavel
Peter Fox-Penner
Jurgen Weiss
Ryan Hledik
Pablo Ruiz
Yingxia Yang
Rebecca Carroll
Jake Zahniser-Word
May 29, 2014

1 | brattle.com
This report was prepared for the Texas Clean Energy Coalition with the support of the Cynthia and George Mitchell Foundation. All results and any errors are the responsibility of the authors and do not represent the opinion of the project’s sponsors, The Brattle Group, Inc. or its clients.
Acknowledgement: We would like to thank the following individuals for their assistance.
Comverge: Colin Meehan
Connections Consulting: …show more content…

SCENARIOS AND RESULTS
Our new results are drawn from a revised set of scenarios involving both key supply and demand-side drivers. The four scenarios we examine are:
• Phase III Reference. A new Reference case, with updated forecasted power sales and base case gas prices, as well as added CHP potential and a refined and expanded portfolio of
DR programs;
• Enhanced Energy Efficiency. The Phase III Reference case with an added portfolio of cost-effective energy efficiency programs;
• Moderate Federal Carbon Policy. The Enhanced Energy Efficiency case with an added requirement that all coal-fired facilities capture and sequester 50% of their CO2 by 2025; and • Strong Federal Carbon Policy. The Enhanced Energy Efficiency Case, but with (a) a rule that all coal-fired plants sequester 90% of their CO2 by 2025; (b) higher natural gas prices due to increased gas demand to replace coal units that cannot cost-effectively sequester
90%; and (c) lower renewable energy costs from more rapid deployment.
Table I-1 summarizes the differences of these four scenarios.
Table I-1 Overview of Modeled Scenarios
No. Case* Gas Price Renewable
Cost
Load forecast Carbon Policy
1 Phase III Reference AEO 2014
Reference
Base Brattle Phase

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