United States in Decline
The United States will decline as a global power in the next 20 years. The primary factors driving this downward decline are the rise of competitive global powers, globalization’s impact on emergent economies, and degradation of the United States military. In particular, China and Russia will emerge as near peers to challenge United States authority in the traditional world order. Globalization will see many developing nations no longer turning to the United States for economic leadership. Lastly, the backbone of American global leadership and power projection, the military, will fail to serve as an effective tool due to years of degradation and overextension.
The rise of global powers and smaller regional powers will directly compete with United States foreign policy abroad. Hegemonic stability theory posits that an open international economy requires an overarching power to ensure political stability and security, thus allowing economic openness (Layne, 2017). The United States occupied this position from the fall of the Soviet Union and end of the Cold War to today. Experts believe this period of primacy has passed, and the United States must adapt to new global challenges (Freier, Bado, Bolan, Hume, & Lissner, 2017). However, with the rise of major geopolitical rivals to challenge the status quo, particularly China and
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American and Chinese foreign policy overlap on a number of key issues in Asia and the Pacific. Of particular note is Taiwan, the South China Sea, a defiant North Korea, as well as the economic potential of Southeast Asia. China will continue to position itself as a regional leader, seeking to build partnerships and exert influence over diplomatic issues. This has been most apparent in China’s involvement in ongoing diplomacy and containment of North Korea (Quinn,