Strategic Prediction Research Paper

532 Words3 Pages

How will we be able to determine the future threats of terrorist attacks? As law enforcement professionals, we should not hibernate on the sidelines and wait for a terrorist event to unfold. We own the burden of acting to prevent and prepare for such attacks with the highest negative consequences for our organizations and people that we serve. Therefore, regardless of how difficult it may appear to be, we are compelled to explore the possibilities and implications of future events and their possible origination points or areas of the world. The future is an ‘unknown factor’, one that lies beyond our present knowledge. Nevertheless, we shall not become stagnant with the investigations and intelligence gathering or else, terrorism will defeat us. Future terrorist attacks are likely to originate in a form that has yet not been explored. Experts expect cyberattacks and chemical attacks as the means of the delivery of the next predicted catastrophe. …show more content…

Strategic prediction seeks to describe general trends and the existence and magnitude of future threats, whereas point prediction focuses on the precise nature of future events, such as their exact timing and location or the identities of the individuals involved. While strategic prediction is often extremely problematic towards seeking point predictions, the more difficult the problem of prediction becomes. We too realize that as one extends the time frame of the forecast, there is a greater level of uncertainty and anticipation becomes more complicated, It is important, therefore, to select the range of our forecasts with care, so that we maximize the utility of a forecast by looking as far ahead as practically possible, while at the same time minimizing the uncertainties by not seeking to look too far into the