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Cloud9: Common Causes

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Cloud9 is worried about common causes. For example, perhaps it is easier to install the JB5000 on newer airplanes, which would cause lazy airplane mechanics to choose newer planes for the test; also, newer airplanes are more aerodynamic (fly through the air better), which reduces fuel burn. So Cloud9 randomly picks the airplanes that will get the JB5000. This allows them to eliminate common cause explanations such as the “newer airplanes” explanation. Based on the RCT of the JB5000, JetBlast concludes that the JB5000 prevents fuel burn, and tells CloudNine that they should buy the JB5000 engines for their airplanes. The RCT does not prove this. The experiment may have created a new confounding variable. Perhaps installing the JB5000 caused
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