Counterfactuals In History

Counterfactuals and Straussian Thucydides

Use of counterfactuals in history is quite a new tendency in historiography. Journal of the Philosophy of Historiography devoted whole 2016 issue to counterfactual statements, to emphasize the importance of D. K. Lewis’s counterfactual theory of causation, when applied to the philosophy of historiography


Thucydides was the first historian to introduce the use of counterfactuals in historiography. They can be (and are, indeed) considered his special technique (Flory, Rood). Some counterfactuals are given in form «X would have happen, if A had not prevented it», some counterfactuals come as a form of reflection on how events (x) might have turned out(x) differently. Although Thucydedian scholars often

Still, he did not write much about Thucydide’s history.

As it is widely known, Leo Strauss embraced his own way of reading great books. His method, the so-called «rediscovered esoteric reading» was meant to open way to the true meaning of ()). Also Leo Strauss was an enemy of historicism.

In my essay I want to link D. Lewis’s counterfactuals put in historical environment (and Thucydide’s history will serve as a show material) , and L.Strauss’s view on historians, Thucydides.

Counterfactual statements give an opportunity to show, how something could have happened in some other way. So, it servers to refutation of historical determinism; counterfactuals wide out the horizon and make possible to view more, deeper. X.X. says that counterfactuals demonstrate the singularity of events.

But Leo Strauss calls Thucydides not a mere historian, but a political philosopher, and Thucydides with singular events shows in fact the universality of human’s nature. When describing вфпавшие на долю Афин невзгоды, Thucydides states подобные бесчинства будут продолжаться и в будущем: «человеческая природа, которая склонна… взяла верх». So, what

I argue that in historical counterfactuals, made by Thucydides himself in author’s voice are the ones where power, politics and the humane meet. When we consider some point as a possible one and when we discuss other possibilities or alternatives, actually we find something universal. This point might be illustrated with a quote from Strauss’s lecture on Thucydides. When discussing the «why the peloponessian war» issue, Strauss says that if we are to consider any alternative, we are talking about something which could be find in PW, in some PW+, PW++, e t.c. Something substantial, something universal. Or, when painting a picture of all the unjust and terrible мучений, выпавших на долю афин, Thucydides states that the human nature never changes and goes further, saying that similar бесчинства are very likely to occur in future as well (««человеческая природа, которая склонна… взяла верх».) and his counterfactuals only add their cents to the account on the human nature issue. (Among other instances of counterfactuals 2.18.4, 3.82.1, 3.113.6, 8.87.4, 8.96.4 can be