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Hans Nesse-Global Health-SIR Model

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MATHEMATICAL MODELLING OF ENDEMIC INFECTIOUS DISEASES (Ebola) Introduction An introduction to disease dynamics. Diseases are an unavoidable part of a human’s life. Namely, the flu or the common cold has very minor symptoms as compared to those like Ebola, Malaria, and AIDS etc. The way these diseases spread have cause a lot of worry and fear amongst us due to the fact that some get severely infected while the others manage to be completely immune. Humans in the past have tried to study the manner in which these diseases have spread and have managed to develop a mathematical method in order to derive and make predictions. Prediction of the spread of diseases through mathematics involves dealing with data and linking it with biological …show more content…

The reason I chose to investigate this topic is because; I am planning to pursue a career in medicine and the statistics and working of the spread of an epidemic greatly interests me. Studying how researchers and epidemiologists come to a conclusion whether or not a disease will turn into an impending epidemic would help in my later years studying in the field of medicine. Exploration Mathematical Modeling of Ebola Brief History The Ebola virus was first discovered in the year 1976, and the most recent outbreak in West Africa (March 2014) is considered the largest and most complex outbreak since. The numbers of deaths in the 2014 outbreak are far greater than all the previous outbreaks combined. It has spread to countries starting in Guinea to various other land borders; Sierra Leone and Liberia, These being the most severely affected due to weak health systems and lack of human and infrastructural …show more content…

The model of this scenario is shown below The model displays the SIR model relationship for Liberia with a total population of 4mill, 2mill out of the population are infected and an initial recovered value of 0 within the span of 50 days. This model is greatly similar to that of the one on Guinea, with the decrease in infected and susceptible from the very start and until the end of 50 days and an increase in the recovered hence the value of dI⁄dt is negative from the very beginning until he end. The following scenarios were all hypothetical; therefore there are various limitations involved with the methods and equations used in order to get the respective results, These limitations are mentioned below. Conclusion Although most of the values, equations, and diagrams in the following investigation are all assumptions, one can get a minor idea of how an epidemic spreads through a fixed population. The reasons of the inaccuracy of the values would be due to a number of complications, like, deaths, babies being born and the variations in immune systems within the population. Taking into consideration factors such as gaining immunity or the population being vaccinated could alter the values used in these

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In response to the Ebola scare in 2014, many people evinced strong fear and xenophobia (Kim, 2016). Especially about the zombie-like symptoms of the virus. In addition how does the virus slowly kills the victim without even realizing that he’s suffering from Ebola virus by replicating and filling the body with crystallized viruses hence damaging the human cells just like a new living organism controls another’s body and killing it bit by bit. To exemplify my relatives used to live in kenya about 43 years ago they were surrounded by ill people that make them terrified and fearful of getting the highly contagious disease, therefore they left kenya and currently they live in the UAE. The most complicated part if you were surrounded by Ebola virus is to calm people down and instead of leaving the country finding beneficial solutions so that the virus won’t disperse from one country to another.

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In the Hot Zone, Richard Preston demonstrates how devastating Ebola and other filoviruses can be to large populations. In the book, Preston describes true events during an outbreak of Ebola virus at a Monkey facility in Reston, Virginia in 1980. He also gives background from other viral outbreaks in Africa in the 1970’s and 1980’s.

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Follow up of the case and trials. Data Gathered: Duration of outbreak, Gender involved, Race, Community ,Geographical area, Social Status, Economical status, Religious Belief, Staple Diet, Environmental Factors, External Factors like wars, land disputes, anxiety , Social status and vulnerability of the

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Ebola spreads less easily than SARS because transmission can be stopped with proper PPE and can only be passed with direct contact of infected persons. SARS is an airborne viral disease that can float in the air for long periods of time even after the infected person has left the room, making it highly contagious (CDC,

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This disease’s transmission would be spread through bodily fluid, sexual contact, blood and semen and even material contact too.. It can be transmitted very easily and very consolidated to contain. A perfect representation of this topic would be when a nurse had gotten the Ebola symptoms from taken care of a Ebola patient, Thomas Duncan. The nurses name is Nina Pham and she got a transfusion from a Ebola survivor and it seemed to work very well. Even though she was stricken with such a deadly disease, she was more worried about her King Charles Spaniel named Bentley, who also had a potential health risk to the community.

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In my article, Zika virus, it states, “The Zika virus ‘is now spreading explosively’ in the Americas, estimating between 3 million to 4 million infections in the region over 12-month period.” (Botelho 1). From the article we can tell the Zika virus spread explosively because of infections. One way this book is similar to my article is that, both texts show contagiousness by explaining, infections. Both of these texts also show that little causes have big

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This field is analogous to epidemiology. It is geared more toward viruses specifically whereas epidemiology focus on diseases in general. It “is the study of viruses and virus-like agents, including (but not limited to) their taxonomy, disease-producing properties, cultivation and genetics” (Meštrović,2015). Medical professionals like Max Theiler go through a process to determine what kind of virus is being analyzed. They classify components of the virus so it was indistinguishable contagion.

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The Articles of Confederation were weak. Thus, they were not able to support the United States in various way. The Articles could not support the US finically. The US also did not have a military to protect its citizens. The Articles of Confederation were weak because there was no strong central government, you had to have a unamouis vote, and the central government could not tax.

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In The Tipping Point, Malcolm Gladwell conveys the three rules of epidemics. Gladwell incites that small changes can make a big impact in social epidemics or outbreaks of ideas. Throughout the book he gives examples of various social epidemics, consequently he breaks them down according to the three rules of epidemics, types of people involved, and connection to other epidemics. However, the main focus of the book is the “tipping point” of social epidemics. Gladwell elaborates that small actions can create a “tipping point” based on timing, setting, and partners.

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We’ve had many global outbreaks in our world of diseases and viruses. The novel The Hot Zone by Richard Preston is about an outbreak of a vicious disease. It gives a terrifying, true narrative about an eruption of a deadly virus, Ebola, the great slate wiper, the disease that did horrific things you did not want to imagine (Preston 64). The vicious virus approached upon the people out of nowhere, when no one knew what it was or why it was happening. The government's response was very well reacted to the situation, they jumped right on the situation, contained the virus and tried to find a cure as soon as possible.

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1. In the video, it was stated that racial classifications are arbitrary. Please explain how racial classifications are arbitrary. Racial classifications are arbitrary. Many “scientists” in societies have tried to prove that some races were more evolutionarily developed than other races with the use of eugenics, but race is a social construct to categorize people with similar features into the same sub-groups. Humans are all one species, and race is nothing more than expressed phenotypes.

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Often as a result of overpopulation, pandemics—like swine flu and ebola, for instance—have affected life on Earth for centuries; one of the most well-known, and possibly the most unforgiving epidemics was the Bubonic Plague, also known as the Black Death . Although the first symptoms of the Plague trace back to the Mongol Empire in 1331, the disease first struck Europe in Venice and Genoa during the winter of 1348. In the following years, the Bubonic Plague spread rapidly throughout Europe, killing roughly a third of its population. It is suggested that the rapid spread and extreme severity of the Black Death was partially due to the weakened immune system of the Europeans, which had been caused by the Great Famine, a period of food scarcity that affected Europe from 1315 to 1322. Additionally, the lack of knowledge about the spread of

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The Ebola virus has always been around, but it has mostly been contained within Africa; but when a doctor visited Africa to treat the disease, he ended up contracting it and bringing it to America, where at least two other people contracted Ebola from him. America tried to ignore the Ebola virus in Africa until it entered the country, just like how Prospero tried to ignore the Red Death while it raged outside of the castellated abbeys, and only tried to address the problem when it appeared at his door. This is proven within the story, when “It was toward the close of the fifth or sixth month of his seclusion, and while pestilence raged most furiously abroad, that the Prince Prospero entertained his thousand friends at a masked ball of the most unusual magnificence” (83). While Prince Prospero could have been making efforts to calm his people or look into ending the plague, he chose to host a masquerade ball instead, leaving over half of his kingdom to fall ill and die a gruesome, painful

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Infection control refers to action devoted to policies and procedures that reduce the risk of spreading infections, reduce the occurrence of diseases caused by bacteria and viruses, parasite. The infectious diseases are normally spread by human to human, human to animal contact or by ingestion of food, droplet in the air, and contact with a surface that is the vehicle of the infective agent. H1N1, commonly known as the swine flu, a viral infection, was a cause of 2009 world-wide pandemic. The virus was first found in pigs, but a similar virus also found in humans. The virus spreads in a same manner as any other seasonal flu, mainly by droplets (small particles in the air) when an infected person coughs, sneezes or even talks, but also by touching

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Imagine ourselves walking to class, professors scurrying to their next class, people having conversations and laughing out loud, maintenance workers taking care of the problems around the campus, police officers watching vigilant, and then all of the sudden they all disappear. The only thing that can be heard is the whispering of the wind, there is no trace of where they went, they just simply –vanished. This terrifying idea is not a joke, it can be seen all across America and around the world, not with humans, but with bees. In last few years there have been significant decrease of bees across the nation and the world. It is a worldwide epidemic that needs our attention and care.

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