Complex Theory: An Application Of Complexity Theory

Complexity Theory

Complex theory is another kind that is closely related to chaos theory. A complex systems is one in which numerous independent elements continuously interact and spontaneously organize and reorganize themselves into more elaborate structures. Thus, complexity has the following characteristics:

• A complex system has a large number of similar but independent elements or agents

• In complex systems, there is persistent movement and responses by the elements

• They exhibit adaptiveness such that the system can adjust to new situations to ensure survival.

• Complex systems display the feature of self-organization. This means that order in the system forms spontaneously

• Complex systems have local rules that apply to each element

First, the theory reminds us all that the actions we undertake can have unforeseen consequences. Specifically, the theory reminds us that war is an affair that cannot be predicted. The self-organizing complexity of the systems offers a highly accurate description of the international order. The international order keeps on changing and is a self-adapting system of independent agents that continue to get more complex. Since the international system has been growing more complex since World War II, this model seems appropriate. The number of independent international and transnational actors has grown. All these are applications of the chaos and complex theory in the metaphorical level. When we go beyond the metaphorical level, the chaos and complexity theory can be used in the field of strategy as a mathematical model to which data can be fit so that conclusions can be extracted.

Even though chaos is unpredictable, the control parameters can be determined through simulations. This is likely to display chaotic behavior. Chaotic behavior in this case doesn’t mean war will take place but the fact that there is unpredictability of the behavior means that the system cannot be controlled. This implies that all mechanisms in place may fail to work as was as planned thus leading to an outbreak of

This could mean that democratic nations are likely to be more peaceful than non-democratic ones. Also, a world in which nations act to protect their security through balance of power alliance system is more stable than one which countries act alone. Thus, the greater the parameters in which the chaos reign, the greater the instability of the system.

4.2. Chaos/Complexity Theory and Deterrence

Deterrence was once successful during the cold war as there were calls in preventing a major war. However, when history is reviewed, deterrence has not worked so well. The bipolar simplicity of Cold war, strong command and control systems, and the threat of mutual nuclear annihilation showed the extreme cases of deterrence. Deterrence proved just to work well during the Cold war as opposed to after it. Its ineffective nature could be because of getting involved in conflict that we could actually avoid. An example is Yugoslavia.

How then can chaos theory make deterrence more effective in the future? Considering that the international system could be in a state of self-organizing criticality, then war can be an example that shows that parts of a system went into