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Persuasive Essay On Presidential Elections

1661 Words7 Pages

President Trump’s election was a surprise. The conventional wisdom said, he should not have won the election. It is wise to see if there is a trend of some kind before determining whether the literature on presidential nominations or election should be revised. President Trump faced 16 candidates in the primary. This also means, 50% or more was not required for candidates to win a state. By the time, there were only three candidates, the nomination was his. Perhaps, Donald Trump is a perfect candidate for the Rust Belt and a Marco Rubio or Jeb Bush would not have won Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. The opposite is just as likely - a Joe Biden or Bernie Sanders could have won the states even against Donald Trump. As a result, a realignment …show more content…

Pollsters conduct polls of likely voters. It is absolutely clear if registered voters did not show up, they do not count. So, it may not make a lot of sense to include all registered voters - not all of them will show up as we do not have compulsory voting in the United States. But, the task of determining who will stay home and who will vote is a very hard task. Just because a voter misses two presidential elections in a row, it does not mean, he or she will never show up to the polls during presidential elections. White working-class men who chose not to show up in 2008 and 2012 showed up in 2016. This was especially true in the Rust Belt. In a given election, voters are given the chance to vote for more than one office (assuming it is not a special election for an unexpected vacancy). Voters could choose for a Senator but decide not to vote for a President. Just because a voter told a pollster that he or she is leaning towards Candidate A, it does not mean, Candidate A has won the voter’s vote. People change their minds. Some can be deceptive - there is a precedent where African Americans underperformed their polling on Election Day. Some may fear of appearing racist for admitting they plan to vote against such a candidate. Such cases were not the case against Obama both in 2008 or 2012. There is no proof some fear of appearing sexists and deceived pollsters in the 2016 election either. (Valentino, N., King, J., & Hill, W.,

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In the 1992 presidential election the candidate that got the most swing state votes also won the election; out of 17 swing states for that year Clinton, the winner, won 11 of them. For every rule there is an exception and the 1996 presidential election is just that. President Clinton ended up winning the election over all; however his opponent won in the swing states. Clinton was only able to win his second term because he won 31 out of 50 states over all. During the following national election, 2000, Bush won the swing states by 72,949 votes.

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However, there are other factors that could have potentially influenced the outcome of this presidential election. The factors that influence how a voter will vote include party identification, a candidate’s personality, race, gender, issues, policy, and presidential approval ratings. Silver makes his argument that Obama won the election because his campaigns targeted urban areas while McCain prioritized appealing to the rural population. This certainly could have been influential to more moderate voters, but party identification tends to be relatively stable for most voters carrying over from one election to the next. Instead of focusing on Obama’s campaigning of urban areas as determining his victory, the other highly controversial factor could simply be the low presidential ratings that commonly occur at the end of the president’s term.

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Historically, there has been many examples of factors influencing voting including poll taxes and literacy tests which made the poor and non educated have a much harder, argumentatively impossible, time voting (Hershey 2009). Those barriers were removed by court legislations and today voting identification laws are what may possibly be affecting voter turnout. The low educated and low-income groups of society have a lower turnout because of these types of laws (Hershey 2009). When looking at the majority of that certain population, it is primarily minorities. It is difficult to register or even get to a polling place, which leads to their absence of appearing to vote.

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