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Persuasive Essay On Presidential Elections

1661 Words7 Pages

President Trump’s election was a surprise. The conventional wisdom said, he should not have won the election. It is wise to see if there is a trend of some kind before determining whether the literature on presidential nominations or election should be revised. President Trump faced 16 candidates in the primary. This also means, 50% or more was not required for candidates to win a state. By the time, there were only three candidates, the nomination was his. Perhaps, Donald Trump is a perfect candidate for the Rust Belt and a Marco Rubio or Jeb Bush would not have won Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. The opposite is just as likely - a Joe Biden or Bernie Sanders could have won the states even against Donald Trump. As a result, a realignment …show more content…

Pollsters conduct polls of likely voters. It is absolutely clear if registered voters did not show up, they do not count. So, it may not make a lot of sense to include all registered voters - not all of them will show up as we do not have compulsory voting in the United States. But, the task of determining who will stay home and who will vote is a very hard task. Just because a voter misses two presidential elections in a row, it does not mean, he or she will never show up to the polls during presidential elections. White working-class men who chose not to show up in 2008 and 2012 showed up in 2016. This was especially true in the Rust Belt. In a given election, voters are given the chance to vote for more than one office (assuming it is not a special election for an unexpected vacancy). Voters could choose for a Senator but decide not to vote for a President. Just because a voter told a pollster that he or she is leaning towards Candidate A, it does not mean, Candidate A has won the voter’s vote. People change their minds. Some can be deceptive - there is a precedent where African Americans underperformed their polling on Election Day. Some may fear of appearing racist for admitting they plan to vote against such a candidate. Such cases were not the case against Obama both in 2008 or 2012. There is no proof some fear of appearing sexists and deceived pollsters in the 2016 election either. (Valentino, N., King, J., & Hill, W.,

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