Slosh Model

The first component of the evacuation plan is the hazard analysis, which examines the population and area at risk based on specific conditions of the hazard. The hazard analysis aims to highlight the possible affected area of a specific hazard event, such as a hurricane (Baker, 2000). Identifying the spatial extent of the potential risk area is not the only objective of the hazard analysis; it also helps in directing attention toward other hazards associated with the specific hazard event itself. In case of a hurricane event for instance, a hazard analysis helps to identify the areas at risk of damage that results from a storm surge, hurricane-force winds, tornadoes, or fresh water flooding. This could be done through utilizing the Sea, Lake,

S. Army Corps of Engineers (1994), the SLOSH model was used as a tool for hazard analysis in determining that the intensity of the storm was the most significant metrological factor that might affect storm surge generation, based on a worst case hurricane

Variations in the demographic characteristics will be reflected in different behavioral responses in different disaster events. Usually the population evacuation behaviors vary from one place to another for the same hazard, i.e., a hurricane, and, from one specific hurricane to another in the same place (Baker, 1991; Lindell and Prater, 2010). This understanding indicates that there will be variations in behavioral evacuation responses to different disasters, e.g., hurricanes and tsunamis. There are several factors that need to be considered in the behavioral analysis: the evacuation participation rate, evacuation time, public shelter use, evacuation destination, and vehicle use (Baker, 2000; CFRPC, 2010b). Identifying and understanding the specific variable characteristics of each of these factors would enhance evacuation planning. Baker (1991) stated that usually few people evacuate before evacuation orders are issued, and they evacuate as quickly as the situation requires. Furthermore, mobile home residents are more likely to evacuate when compared with built-site-home residents due to the perceived vulnerability of the hurricane risk, the strength of the house itself and the storm