Iranian Deal Pros And Cons

The stated goal of the Iran Deal as laid out by the JCPOA is to both prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons and to attempt to change Iran’s fundamental approach to the issue (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, 2016). Therefore, the primary goal of the nuclear agreement is to extend Iran’s breakout capacity; that is the time required to produce enough fissile material for a nuclear weapon (Heinonen, 2016). Toward this end, the plan places physical limitations on Iran’s nuclear capabilities, so as to close off what the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) sees as the three potential routes to a nuclear weapon: the plutonium, Uranium, and covert routes. Blocking the first two routes involves modifying or incapacitating existing nuclear

The JCPOA is essentially a guns for butter deal, in that Iran temporarily gives up its pursuit of nuclear weapons in exchange for economic relief. Assuming no cheating, this multilateral agreement will limit Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons for at least 15 years (Dueck, 2015). A nuclear Iran would fundamentally alter the balance of power in the region, potentially sparking a regional nuclear arms race, involving Turkey, Egypt and Saudi Arabia (Bowman, 2008). The deal would likely lessen the pressure for local proliferation, allowing US regional allies to instead focus on building up conventional armed forces for security purposes. The Deal also poses local and international benefits to the global economy. The effects of sanction relief on the Iranian economy will be profound, increasing predicted GDP growth to 8% within two years. This stable growth would play a major role in alleviating many major social and economic problems within Iran, such as rapid inflation, unstable growth and high unemployment (Torchia, 2015). On the global level, the return of Iran to the world economy would be sizable, allowing adding an extra 2.8 million barrels a day to global supply, lowering oil prices substantially (Reuters,