“If the world is to be spared even worse turmoil, the U.S. must develop a strategic doctrine for the region.” That was former Secretaries of State Henry Kissinger and George Shultz warning us about the consequences of the Iran nuclear agreement this spring.
While the White House negotiated with Iranian political leaders, the United States stumbled through the Middle East. The missteps include failure to support the green revolution in Iran in 2009, red lines in Syria that didn’t really exist in 2012, a small effort to defeat ISIS in 2014 and continuing today and strained relations with Israel for six years. That is not a strategy. The winners and losers of the Iranian nuclear deal, however, are clear and help us understand what is at stake.
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Iran currently has shorter-range missiles that reach Israel and now there is money to buy more. And with the agreement lifting restrictions on international trade with Iran, Russia will soon be selling advanced anti-aircraft system to Tehran which military experts believe can defeat the latest American and Israeli aircraft.
Another potential loser in this agreement is the region itself. This agreement almost guarantees a nuclear-arms race in the Middle East. There is no way that Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, and Turkey will stand idly by while Iran is free to lay the groundwork for developing nuclear capacity. Saudi Arabia has already stated their intention to obtain a nuclear-weapon capability. Jordan, our most reliable Arab ally, is considering nuclear energy and has stated a desire to enrich Uranium.
The United States will also lose unless it assesses its own security posture in the deal’s aftermath. The agreement allows Iran to continue development of Inter-Continental Ballistic Missiles which have one purpose: the delivery of nuclear warheads. Once they have ICBMs they will be able to reach the United States and this strike capability will be ten years or less from