Indeterminacy And Quality Of Intelligence Analysis

“The core concept of critical thinking, on every approach, is improving the quality of reasoning through greater conscious attention to the process of thinking.” Critical thinking is a core skill area for intelligence analysts for two major reasons. The first reason is that critical thinking improves the analytical process. Analysts who think critically improve their thinking process. Second, critical thinking improves the product of one’s analysis. Therefore, critical thinking not only improves the process of intelligence analysis, it also improves the content for which intelligence analysis produces. When applied to intelligence analysis, critical thinking improves the accuracy and quality of intelligence. Intelligence cannot be created without critical thinking, as analysts alone create intelligence. While technology is used to assist analysts by cataloguing data, evidence, and information, it cannot provide an analysis. The only tool analysts can use to create intelligence, with minimal inaccuracies, is critical thinking.

This is the best response when there is incomplete information. Analysts also determine the primary factors affecting an outcome. This is the best response when dealing with irrelevant information, forcing analysts to discern which of many possible factors is affecting an outcome. Analysts must also anticipate the most likely outcomes obtaining for every alternate possibility; this is the best response to the problem of indeterminacy. This is especially important as indeterminacy may lead to the inclusion of counterfactual reasoning as part of one’s critical thinking’s procedures. If an analyst is adept at utilizing the most important methods of critical thinking to intelligence analysis, the probability of an inaccurate product